Six months in.
Just a few days after the October 7 Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel, which killed more than 1,200 Israelis and took place six months ago this week, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israeli troops, “What was in Gaza, will be no more.”
On that pledge at least, Israel has followed through — and then some. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 31,000 people have been killed in the territory, around 1.4 percent of the population. Gaza is facing a crisis level of hunger, a situation that will worsen after several aid organizations have scaled back their activities following an Israeli airstrike that killed seven aid workers this week. The Gaza Strip has been pulverized, with about 35 percent of its buildings destroyed, according to the United Nations. And around 85 percent of Gaza’s population has been displaced.
In many respects, however, the war has confounded expectations. In the early days following the Hamas attacks, Israel called up some 360,000 reservists, the largest military mobilization in the country’s history. While the actual numbers deployed into Gaza have not been revealed, estimates put the number at just about 30,000 troops as of the end of last year, and many of those have now been withdrawn.
When Israel launched its ground operations in late October, Israeli commanders predicted it would take around three months, before transitioning to a new phase involving stamping out last pockets of resistance and setting up a new governance structure for Gaza.
Today, that timeline looks extremely optimistic at best.
In late January, US intelligence agencies estimated that only about 20 to 30 percent of Hamas’s fighters had been killed and that the group still had enough munitions for months worth of strikes. Six months in, there’s still no end in sight, and the Israeli government’s post-war plans still look exceedingly vague.
A mixed regional picture
Beyond Gaza itself, there were widely held concerns in the days following October 7 that the conflict would spill over into a regional war. Preventing this from happening was one of the primary — if not the primary — US goals in the early days of the conflict. It’s why the Pentagon deployed assets including aircraft carrier groups to the region and issued warnings to Iran and its proxy groups not to join the conflict.
Six months later, the regional picture is mixed. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah continues to exchange fire with the Israeli military over the border between the two countries. But despite some periodic threats, neither side appears interested in escalating the conflict to an all-out war.
In the weeks following the start of the conflict, Iran-backed militant groups launched more than 170 attacks on US troops in the Middle East, culminating in a strike that killed three US troops in Jordan on January 28. But since the aggressive American response to that strike, these attacks have virtually stopped. It remains to be seen, however, whether this “pause” could end following a surprise Israeli strike that killed a senior Iranian military commander in Damascus, Syria, earlier this week.
Apart from some isolated attacks — and despite Hamas’s hopes — there have been few signs of a wider uprising among Palestinians in the West Bank, or inter-communal tensions within Israel itself. The biggest threat to political stability in Israel today comes not from the West Bank but from protests by Israelis against Netanyahu’s rule and an ongoing political controversy involving the role of ultra-Orthodox Jews in the country’s military.
The biggest surprise, regionally, has been Yemen’s Houthis, who put themselves on the map with an ongoing campaign to disrupt global shipping through the Red Sea, despite the best efforts of the US military and its allies.
Beyond the Middle East, the world’s patience with Israel is running out. Global sympathy for Israel was hardly universal in the days following the Hamas attacks, but today feels a long way from those moments when the Brandenburg Gate, 10 Downing Street, and the Sydney Opera House were all lit up in the colors of the Israeli flag.
As for Israel’s most important global ally, things are also shifting — but more slowly.
A relationship nearing the breaking point
In the early days of the conflict, President Joe Biden made a remarkable wartime visit to Israel, while part of the administration pursued what was called a “bear hug” strategy — publicly expressing solidarity while privately shaping Israel’s response.
These days, the hug is looking a lot less friendly. Officials including the president himself have expressed frustration with the high toll of civilian casualties from Israel’s airstrikes and the disruptions to aid efforts in Gaza. The administration has taken a number of steps that would have been very unlikely in the early days of the war, including slapping sanctions on some Israeli settlers and allowing a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire to pass, after vetoing several previous motions.
Nonetheless, despite all the internal anger and expressions of frustration, the Biden administration has resisted calls to take more dramatic steps to distance itself from the Israeli war effort, such as conditioning military aid on Israel complying with more stringent targeting standards.
But that could be changing. On Thursday, White House spokesperson John Kirby said there would be changes to the US policy on Gaza if it did not see concrete steps from Israel to protect civilians and aid workers and allow in more aid in the coming “hours and days.” What steps by Israel would satisfy that demand and what changes the US might consider if they do not are still not clear.
And bigger shifts are taking place elsewhere in the US. A majority of Americans now oppose Israel’s military actions, with support dropping from 50 percent to 36 percent between November and March.
The drop is most pronounced among Democrats, but even Donald Trump, who rarely missed an opportunity to tout his pro-Israel bona fides and back Netanyahu while he was president, now says it’s time for the war to end.
Whatever the next six months bring, there has likely been a permanent and long-lasting shift in the US-Israel relationship.
This story appeared originally in Today, Explained, Vox’s flagship daily newsletter. Sign up here for future editions.
US solar power has more than doubled since the last eclipse. What will happen during this one?
As the moon passes in front of the sun on April 8, its shadow will knock down solar power production in a sweeping band across the United States from Texas to Maine, home to more than 31 million people.
The United States currently has more than 139 gigawatts of solar electricity generation capacity. That’s more than two and a half times the amount of solar that was on the grid during the last total eclipse in 2017. The upcoming eclipse will also shade a path twice as wide as the last one. Though much of the country will see some decline in solar power production, the biggest decrease will be directly under the moon’s shadow.
For the most part, power grid operators aren’t too worried about outages or major problems during the eclipse. In fact, unlike disruptions like clouds, the moon passing between the Earth and the sun is easily predictable up to 1,000 years in advance. But behind the scenes, it will require a carefully choreographed series of energy transactions to precisely ramp up electricity from a handful of generators and route it across hundreds of miles of transmission lines to millions of customers to precisely match the needs of every monitor, air conditioner, and light bulb the instant they turn on.
So grid operators are preparing for the totality, and the lessons they learn will prove useful as even more intermittent power sources connect to the grid and as power generators and transmission systems face even more severe stresses from rising energy demand and threats like wildfires, drought, and storms, many worsened by climate change.
Texas is a case in point. It has the second-largest solar capacity in the US and the path of totality cuts straight through it. According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the US will see a nearly 60 gigawatt drop in solar power production when the moon blocks out the lone star in the sky above the Lone Star State.
The Texas grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), has been running simulations and modeling how the eclipse will affect the state’s power network, which, unlike the rest of the continental US, has few connections to other states. That means it can’t easily buy or sell electricity across state lines if it has too much or too little power. Hail storms last month also caused major damage to some solar installations in the state. For power grids like ERCOT’s, the biggest challenge is how quickly solar power will fall off and bounce back up. The eclipse will cause solar power generation to fall and rise at a faster rate than a typical sunset and sunrise.
“ERCOT has analyzed the ramping challenges posed by the eclipse and will continue to monitor this aspect of the eclipse as updated weather forecasts are received,” said a spokesperson for ERCOT in an email.
Farther north, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which runs power transmission across much of the Midwest, is also bracing for a sudden drop and spike in solar energy production, which could cause congestion, a situation in which more electricity is available than can be delivered.
Operators also anticipate that temperatures will drop somewhat during the eclipse, which could lower cooling demand but increase the need for lighting. In response, operators are bringing more reserve power online and coordinating electricity deliveries with neighboring grids.
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MISO
Why is it so tricky to keep the lights on when it gets dark during the day?
The main issue is that electricity generation has to closely match demand for it. If there’s too little power, that can lead to brownouts and blackouts. If there’s more electricity than anyone can easily use, it means the utility is wasting money. Excess power can also lead to equipment failures or destabilize the network.
“If there’s a change on either side — the generation or on the load side — some control actions are needed to balance it, and it has to be done quite quickly,” said Adam Birchfield, an assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at Texas A&M University who studies the power grid. “Typically, that is some kind of traditional generator, whether it’s natural gas, coal, or hydro, that can adjust its output slightly to make up for that difference.”
One way to do this is with “spinning reserve.” That’s where a power generator is already spinning and synchronized with the power grid, but not connected until it is needed. Another way is with dedicated power plants that spool up to meet demand spikes. These are called peaking power plants and they are usually powered by natural gas. Energy storage with pumped hydropower or grid batteries can also kick in, but there aren’t that many of these storage systems right now, certainly not on the scales needed to balance the entire power grid.
Like airline tickets, the longer you wait to book your electricity, the more expensive it gets. And if you’re too late, there may not be enough power to go around. Grid operators and utilities thus try to buy power as far ahead as possible to get the best rates and carefully match it to electricity demand.
A particular concern with solar power on the grid is that it’s not just large utility-scale fields of photovoltaic (PV) panels that feed power into the grid; there’s also solar power generated on rooftops. “A lot of utilities don’t have accurate data for how much PV has been installed on their grid,” said Jin Tan, a principal engineer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, during a webinar. That makes it harder to anticipate power spikes and drops.
Still, for ordinary power users, it’s unlikely that they’ll notice anything about their electricity during the eclipse. Some utilities might have to scramble to secure extra power but that won’t manifest at the outlet.
The bigger worry for everyone counting on keeping their phones, computers, and electric cars charged up is what’s over the horizon. Last year, the US set an electricity demand record under intense heat that stressed power production. The grid largely avoided blackouts, due to a combination of planning to have extra power as well as luck that demand didn’t get any higher. Grid operators also issued emergency conservation alerts to their customers, and fortunately, enough power users complied to keep the lights on.
But overall energy demand in the US is growing. The amount of electricity devoured by data centers alone is poised to double by 2026, driven by digital industries like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, intermittent renewable energy sources like wind and solar power are already providing the most new capacity additions to the grid and are projected to grow further in the coming years. And the US’s aging power lines and transformers are vulnerable to extreme weather and in some cases, can trigger their own disasters. Power lines likely ignited the largest wildfire in Texas history earlier this year.
So, the US’s growing appetite for energy will be fed with a larger portion of some of the most capricious generators across a fragile delivery system, leaving grid operators to walk an even thinner, higher wire as they balance the power they have with the people who need it. It will take careful preparation now to ensure the grid stays balanced in the light and does not tumble into darkness.
Looking to understand the Israel-Hamas war? Start with these Vox podcast episodes.
The Israel-Palestine conflict goes back decades, but this latest war has taken an unprecedented toll in terms of the number of people killed, and represents a significant step back from any hopes of securing a two-state solution and a permanent peace. Vox podcasts are covering the conflict in depth, offering our listeners context and clarity about the history of the conflict, a deeper understanding of the players in Israel and Palestine and on the world stage, and the toll of Hamas’s attack and Israel’s retaliation on the people in the region.
Today, Explained, Vox’s daily news explainer podcast, has been covering the conflict since it began, with an episode posted right after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel that took the lives of around 1,200 people and resulted in the kidnapping of an estimated 240 hostages. The show has since continued to cover many threads in this story, from where Hamas comes from to how false information about the conflict has spread on social media and how information warfare is used in the Middle East. Vox podcasts The Weeds and The Gray Area have also been covering the unfolding crisis, its stakes, and its impact.
You can find those and all our other episodes on the topic below; we’ll continue to add more as new episodes are published.
Israel’s attack on World Central Kitchen
April 4, 2024 | The Wall Street Journal’s Stephen Kalin explains what happened, and Refugees International president Jeremy Konyndyk lays out what this means for Gazans.
How Israel is upending Democratic races
March 5, 2024 | Super Tuesday is the biggest day of the presidential primary campaign, but the biggest race in the biggest state isn’t about Biden or Trump. Instead, the leading candidates for California’s open Senate seat — three Democrats and a Republican — are finding themselves talking a lot about Israel, Palestine, and the war in Gaza.
The protest vote against Biden
February 27, 2024 | Michigan’s primary today will test President Biden’s viability with Muslim voters amid the war in Gaza. One Arab American leader says the community is abandoning Biden and looking for alternatives — Donald Trump might be one of them.
Rafah, the last “safe” zone
February 15, 2024 | Palestinians are trapped in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, where about 1.5 million people have sought refuge. After Israel bombed Rafah this weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is threatening a ground invasion. Palestinian journalist Aseel Mousa takes us inside Rafah, and the Economist’s Anton La Guardia explains why diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting have stalled.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance
January 31, 2024 | Iran-backed militias use drones, missiles, and even TikTok dances to antagonize the United States and Israel. The International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez explains how the war in Gaza has energized the self-described Axis of Resistance.
Israel at the International Court of Justice
January 29, 2024 | South Africa took Israel to court over claims of genocide. Courthouse News reporter Molly Quell and the International Crisis Group’s Robert Blecher explain what happened next.
How the war in Gaza ends
January 18, 2024 | Israel’s war against Hamas has now been raging for over 100 days. According to Ian Lustick, professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania, history tells us what it will take to end it.
Israel’s next move
January 3, 2023 | Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces trouble at home and abroad. AP correspondent Tia Goldenberg and scholar Hussein Ibish explain the significance of a high-profile killing in Lebanon.
The fight over campus antisemitism
December 12, 2023 | Three elite university presidents walk into Congress for a hearing on antisemitism. Only two still have their jobs. New York magazine reporter Nia Prater tells us what happened, and a Harvard professor of Jewish history explains why he thinks resignations won’t make campuses safer.
How Palestine went global
December 4, 2023 | People with no direct connection to the Middle East have taken to seeing the Palestinian cause as an anti-colonial struggle connected to their own experience. Columbia historian Rashid Khalidi explains why “decolonization” is resonating worldwide.
The American politics of Israel
November 29, 2023 | The Israel-Hamas war is dividing the previously united Democrats and uniting the recently fractured Republican Party. Semafor’s David Weigel explains what that means going into 2024.
The hostage deal (brought to you by Qatar)
November 27, 2023 | After 50 days of the Israel-Hamas war, both sides took a breather to save lives. And it couldn’t have happened without Qatar.
Inside the occupied West Bank
November 20, 2023 | With the world focused on Gaza, Israeli settlers and soldiers are increasing attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. Writer Nathan Thrall and journalist Dalia Hatuqa explain the decades of tension that shape life in the West Bank.
A call from Gaza
November 14, 2023 | People are desperately trying to escape Gaza as the siege on the strip continues. Mohammed Ghalaieny, a Palestinian British man, tells us why he is choosing to stay, even as other foreign nationals escape through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt.
A Jew and a Muslim get honest about Israel and Gaza
November 13, 2023 | Zack Beauchamp, a Vox senior correspondent who writes about democracy and Israel, speaks with Shadi Hamid, a columnist at the Washington Post, research professor of Islamic studies at Fuller Seminary, and author of The Problem of Democracy: America, the Middle East, and the Rise and Fall of an Idea. They discuss the October 7 attack, the subsequent war in Gaza, what it means for Israelis and Palestinians, and how Jews and Muslims in the United States can find common ground amid their communities’ grief. This conversation was recorded on November 2, 2023.
BDS and the history of the boycott
November 8, 2023 | If you turn on the news or scroll through your social media feed of choice, there’s a good chance you’ll see the latest on the Israel-Hamas war — and the reaction to it. But there’s one call to action making its way down social media feeds that feels different from all these other responses. It’s called BDS, short for boycott, divest, and sanction. And like just about everything related to this conflict, it’s complicated and controversial. The Weeds host Jonquilyn Hill sits down with Vox senior reporter Whizy Kim to explain the controversial movement, and with Cornell professor and author of Buying Power: A History of Consumer Activism in America Lawrence B. Glickman to discuss the history of boycotts and whether they even work.
Ceasefire?
November 8, 2023 | Protesters, politicians, and the pope are calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, but the US and Israeli governments remain opposed. Vox’s Jonathan Guyer and Jon B. Alterman from the Center for Strategic and International Studies explain what happens next.
The view from Israel
November 2, 2023 | Israelis overwhelmingly disapprove of their government’s handling of the October 7 attacks, but their desire for unity keeps Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in power. Michael Koplow of the Israel Policy Forum explains what Israel’s government should do next, and professor Noah Efron of Bar-Ilan University describes the mood among Israelis.
Gaza’s humanitarian crisis
October 30, 2023 | Cut off from water and power and recovering from a communications blackout, Gaza is plunged deeper into crisis. It’s not just a humanitarian problem, says leading human rights attorney Kenneth Roth — it’s a violation of international law.
Why does the US always side with Israel?
October 25, 2023 | This was the top question we got when we asked Today, Explained listeners hat they wanted to know about this conflict. Joel Beinin, Middle East history professor emeritus at Stanford, has answers.
Hearts, minds, and likes
October 23, 2023 | False information about what is happening in Israel and Gaza is taking over social media faster than journalists like BBC Verify’s Shayan Sardarizadeh can check it. That’s exactly how digital propagandists want it, says professor and social media expert Marc Owen Jones.
Biden goes to Israel
October 18, 2023 | It’s been 11 days since Hamas attacked Israel, killing civilians and taking hostages. Israel’s retaliation has killed hundreds of Palestinians and created a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment Aaron David Miller and Middle East analyst Michael Wahid Hanna explain what role diplomacy will play in the coming days.
How Palestinians view Hamas
October 16, 2023 | The US along with Israel and many of its allies have long considered Hamas a terrorist group. Khaled Al-Hroub, a professor at Northwestern University in Qatar, explains how its reputation is a lot murkier among Palestinians, who elected the group to political power in 2006.
Israel, Hamas, and how we got here
October 10, 2023 | This Israel-Hamas war is unlike the ones that came before it, says Haaretz’s Allison Kaplan Sommer. But it was years in the making, says Vox’s Zack Beauchamp.